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8月22号巴菲特关于试图收购一家中国公司的访谈

发布: 2008-8-23 11:17 |  作者: http://www.cnbc.com |  来源: http://www.cnbc.com |  查看: 39次

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N?!\W+MQ0  LIVE BLOG ARCHIVE: Three Hours with Warren Buffett Live from Omaha就要股票网X2V}.j:@#`:}:[
  Posted By:Alex Crippen
#{"e)A9_|:hm6G0  Topics:Warren Buffett
X1x S!SN]7[LC!g8c0  Companies:Wells Fargo and Co | American Express Co | Anheuser Busch Companies Inc | Coca Cola Co | Conoco Phillips | Freddie Mac | Fannie Mae | Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
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  THIS IS A LIVE BLOG ARCHIVE OF WARREN BUFFETT'S APPEARANCES ON CNBC'S SQUAWK BOX THIS MORNING. BUFFETT SPOKE WITH BECKY QUICK LIVE AT THE HOLLAND PERFORMING ARTS CENTER IN OMAHA, NEBRASKA.
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  CLICK HERE FOR THE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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8Z&y&V#W:`i0  6:01 AM: Becky Quick introduces Warren Buffett and plays a clip from the documentary I.O.U.S.A, which premiered last night in hundreds of movie theaters around the country. Buffett says he doesn't think the problem of the national debt is as bad as portrayed in the film, but he admires the people who made the film and thinks its good that people are thinking about the situation.就要股票网}W]K { e
  
!G^w h/R1P7{0  6:03 AM: Buffett says "things have rippled out" in the U.S. economy, as one might expect.
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  6:06 AM: Asked about Fannie Mae [FNM 4.46 -0.39 (-8.04%) ] and Freddie Mac [FRE 2.70 -0.46 (-14.56%) ], Buffett says due to implicit government backing, the two GSEs could borrow without the usual checks and balances. Then needed to keep earnings growing to keep stock market happy and turned to accounting to do it. Agrees they are "too big to fail." Buffett says they would have been gone a long time ago if the government hadn't been behind them. He thinks Freddie and Fannie will survive but shareholders could "lose a lot of money."
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  6:05 AM: Still thinks the economic problems will be deeper than longer than expected. He expects things will be better five years from now, but not five months from now. "Troubles feed on themselves."就要股票网l$uv3pW2z"`3W x D
  
;[d4p7^$?1cIZ N0  6:10 AM: Buffett says problems of GSEs illustrate how difficult it is for government to regulate companies where management is trying to deceive or simply doesn't know what's going on.
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  6:12 AM: Buffett says that while Fannie and Freddie have looked for cash from the private sector, it won't be enough to save them. Government will have to step in. His comments raise the possibility that he and Berkshire had been approached to provide capital to Freddie and Fannie, although he does not address that directly.

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4x*L.]1op@4r0  6:13 AM: Buffett says derivatives aren't evil, but can be misused. "They are dangerous things." Says he knows every derivatives contract Berkshire Hathaway has bought.
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NXSUEf"T0  6:17 AM: After returning from a commercial break, Becky brings in Carl Quintanilla, who is co-anchoring from the Summer Olympics in Beijing. Becky asks about Coca-Cola's sponsorship of the Olympics. (Berkshire has a big stake in Coca-Cola: [KO 54.27 0.76 (+1.42%) ].) Buffett says Olympic sponsorship is good for a company like Coca-Cola that wants to be associated in people's minds with happiness, competition, and nations coming together. Buffett says he's been enjoying watching the Olympics on television, but he hasn't gone to China himself to see any of them.
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a6q|mg#Nv0  6:22 AM: Buffett reveals that Berkshire made a half-billion dollar bid on a Chinese stock that wasn't accepted. He wouldn't say what stock or what industry. He did say that under the right circumstances he could have a lot of money in China, but noted that there are government restrictions on foreign ownership that must be overcome.就要股票网z~"W Q#?DK.xX
  
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  Warren Buffett chats with Pete Peterson Foundation CEO Dave Walker (seated) during a break.
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  6:34 AM: Becky introduces Dave Walker, CEO of the Pete Peterson Foundation, whose campaign to raise awareness about the nation's national debt forms the basis of the film I.O.U.S.A. While Buffett doesn't agree with Walker on just how bad the problem is, he says he does admire Walker's work and thinks it's always better to try to get politicians to think longer-term.就要股票网8E(}*~E4i5S
  
G+Yl&\D#x Wk0  6:44 AM: Becky and Warren have moved from the stage of the auditorium to a couple of the seats in the audience. Becky plays taped questions from some of the people who attended the movie premiere last night. The first question is about the American character and debt. Buffett says there's nothing wrong with having some debt, it just becomes a problem when it gets too bid. "Berkshire can expect to have debt forever" and shareholders wouldn't want it to operate debt-free. You worry when debt begins to spiral higher, because it then becomes more difficult to keep borrowing money from around the world.就要股票网pm mU j&WaC
  
+kG;oN ^7z0  6:46 AM: Buffett says "investing in yourself" is always the best thing.
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  6:48 AM: Is Fannie Mae going under? Buffett says in a sense they already have because they wouldn't survive without government backing. "They priced risk wrong."
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K'Msl_a R@;Cdy0  6:53 AM: Buffett talks about the trip he made this week with Bill Gates and some others to see the oil sands in northeastern Alberta, Canada. Buffett says he and Bill wanted to see what it looks like rather than just read about it. He confirms the trip was arranged by Omaha-based Kiewit Corp, which is doing some construction work connected with oil sands development. Asked if he's interested in investing in oil sands, he said no, but that the information he learned about the industry has been filed away and could become useful at some point in the future.就要股票网2B s^\8o P

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  6:56 AM: Buffett says he does not have a "buy order" right now for any oil sand companies.
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W] et F-Z j0  7:03 AM: Becky asks again about the economy and he repeats his view that the negative ripples will continue to spread for awhile. He sees no "early end" to the problems although they will end eventually.
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0l]+iR{+O:|"lH0  7:05 AM: Buffett confirms that he sold 60 percent of his Anheuser-Busch [BUD 67.77 0.01 (+0.01%) ] shares at prices around $61-$62 before the company agreed to a friendly merger with InBev at a sweetened price of $70. Buffett says at the time he wasn't sure the deal would go through given Anheuser's strong resistance to InBev's original bid. "In retrospect, I was wrong," but he says that often happens.就要股票网XY x7E,RWC a
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  7:07 AM: Becky notes that in Berkshire's latest SEC filing, the company keeps information about its holdings of Conoco-Phillips [COP 83.55 -1.50 (-1.76%) ] secret. She can't get Buffett to say anything about whether he's been buying or selling the stock recently.
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  7:10 AM: Asked about the oil market, Buffett says demand and supply for crude has changed significantly in the past five years. He thinks Boone Picken's energy plan is "on the right track" and warns that the world can not keep increasing its demand for oil. 就要股票网^1SA+pjE S6a?
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xq Y"nUK1Wb)]0  7:15 AM: Dave Walker returns and is joined by Pete Peterson, whose foundation provided financial backing for the I.O.U.S.A film and AARP CEO Bill Novelli. They all participated in last night's live panel discussion after the premiere of I.O.U.S.A. Walker says the cost of health care is the biggest problem contributing to the nation's bleak financial future. Buffett says he believes the economy will continue to grow and "unleash human potential" so he isn't as worried about the future as Walker and Peterson are. "The pie will grow." Still, he says, you always need to be thinking about the future. He fears large current account deficits could be dangerous politically years down the road, even if they don't stop the economy from growing.

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  7:22 AM: Peterson says his foundation is looking at new media, including websites like Facebook, to try to get young people energized about doing something about continued deficits.就要股票网f@R)m0B
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  7:38 AM: After an interview from Beijing with a GE executive, Squawk returns to Becky and Buffett in Omaha. She asks what grade he would give to the Federal Reserve. He says he admires anyone who takes on a very difficult job. He might not always agree with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke but he admires that Bernanke is taking tough problems with no obvious answers.就要股票网'V}T$Q[z0{Q V
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  7:40 AM: Buffett says there's a "reasonable chance" that Fannie and Freddie's equity will be wiped out. They keep existing because they're backed by the government, and the government should continue to support them, expect for the equity portion. He notes that Berkshire had been a big holder of the GSEs before selling the entire stake around 2000 and 2001.
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6vZ'y6_8A }0  7:42 AM: Buffett says he has no bets against the U.S. dollar right now and no direct currency plays. he also notes that stocks are generally more attractive now than they were a year ago.
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  7:45 AM: Real test for a politician is whether they will support something their constituents oppose. He says both sides in the campaign are not addressing some issues because it would cost them votes.
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z6ZH%GEy:m%H0  7:53 AM: Buffett: The Fed "has real problems on inflation." Some Berkshire businesses are being squeezed on prices. For example, carpet manufacturing involves a lot of oil. The price of making carpets keeps going up, but it's hard to pass those costs on to consumers due to weak spending. Wholesale prices will "have to" show up in consumer prices. Once inflation is "ignited" it gets difficult to bring it under control.就要股票网3WE"u8D YG(W
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  7:55 AM: Buffett reveals that on September 9 at Boston's Fenway Park, he will be throwing out the first pitch with former General Electric CEO Jack Welch as his catcher. He jokes that whatever pitch Welch calls for, even if it is the pitch that bounces several times before it reaches the plate, he "will throw that pitch."
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TAG: 巴菲特 中国公司
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brucelhb (2008-8-26 21:08:25, 评分:0)

译/端宏斌
  
  老端注:巴菲特近日在接受电视台的专访时谈了很多关于中国经济以及中国股票的话题,让人感兴趣的是,他甚至讲起了自己最近的一笔交易。老端担心阅读二手新闻容易被骗,特意找来了相关的采访实录,下面是一些有趣内容的原文翻译。访谈实录出自cnbc的网站(可以查看视频):http://www.cnbc.com/id/19206666/site/14081545/
  
  主持人:这场奥运会是否让你改变了一些之前的看法?比如西方世界、中国,不断增加的机会,以及美国公司与不同的政府打交道的能力等等?
  巴菲特:我大约一年前去过中国,我在1995年的时候也去过,我从没见过一个国家能够在12年或更多的时间里——当你考虑到她的规模,能够有如此巨大的改变。因此我之前就相信他们会带给我们一场令人难以置信的出色奥运,事实果然如此,我原本就是这么想的。你拥有一大批非常非常聪明的人,他们又无比认真的想要做好,他们当然会把事情干好。
  
  主持人:那么中国的股票呢?那里的股票市场有没有让你感兴趣?你最近已经在全球转了一圈了。
  巴菲特:是的,但你也知道,你作为外国人是不能直接在中国股票市场交易的,这是特殊的环境。
  巴菲特:我以前买过中石油,就在不久前,那里还真有一只股票我们打算买下,但最终没成交。对于商业来说,这确实很糟糕,所以在正常环境下,你会看到我在那里投一大笔钱。
  主持人:是什么股票呢?
  巴菲特:哦,不能说不能说,我从没想到你会问。
  主持人:不是不能说把,没错,你不断的查看股市,然后一旦看到感兴趣的机会,你就会买入。
  巴菲特:我们打算投入5亿美元在某些东西上。
主持人:……沃伦,我们想问问你第一次在电影院约会的经历。
  巴菲特:那是在八年级的时候,也在奥马哈。我有个朋友很想约一个女孩子出去玩,为了避免尴尬,他又找了我们几个同去,让我们也找各自的女伴。我们带着女孩子们坐公车,由于她们都分住在不同的街区,光是把她们找齐就费了不少时间,最后我们来到了电影院,我们选了两部电影,一部是Simone Simon的《猫女》,另一部是Lon Chaney 的《木乃伊之手》,都是恐怖片,我们算计着,女孩子们可能会由于惊吓而躲到我们的怀里,你猜最后发生了什么?正相反,我们给吓了个半死,男生给吓的抱作一团,女孩子们反而相当的cool,最后我们把她们送回了家,而下一次约会大约是两年之后的事情了。
  
  主持人:有人说美国的民主导致美国的债务,这句话你怎么看?
  巴菲特:在美国,拥有债务并没有什么奇怪的。我意思是,我的伯克夏也有债务,但这可以帮助我们更好的成长,只是当债务失控的时候,我们才应该担心。至于美国的民主嘛,花的比赚得多总是令人高兴的,特别是对于政府而言。在一个GDP总量达到14万亿美元的国家,拥有大约GDP百分之六十几的债务也不是不正常,正如在二战之后,我们的政府拥有了相当于GDP120%的债务,这是因为我们想要赢得胜利。
  主持人:无尽增长的预算赤字也没关系吗?
  巴菲特:将赤字控制在GDP的某个百分比是可能的,我意思是,我的伯克夏可以永久拥有债务,只要我们的盈利能力不断增长,我就可以支持更多的债务。我也不认为我们的股东会希望我们基于某些特定的规则,让我们尽快摆脱所有债务。所以,真正要担心的是,债务失去控制螺旋般上升,它每一年就占GDP的百分比都上升。因为等到那时候,你再想去借钱的时候,全世界都会对你说NO!南美洲和东南亚以前就发生过这类事,我们之所以还能够借到美元,那是因为人家还信任美元,如果我们拥有了相当于GDP300%-400%的债务,那没人会相信美元了。
  
  主持人:石油价格不久前还接近150美元,现在已经跌到了120美元左右,你是否认为120美元是个合理的价格?
  巴菲特:这真的是很难说,但你应该知道的是,自从二战以来,石油的供求关系已经发生了最大的变化。我意思是,自从二战以来,我们的石油供应量总是大于需求量,可是现在,情况完全不同。以前我们曾经故意关闭一些德州的油井,就是为了防止石油价格跌得太厉害,那时候才3美元一桶。所以,以前我们找到的新增供应量总是大于需求量。但是在过去的十年里,最初五年,石油每天需求量增加了400万桶,接下来的五年里,石油每天需求量又增加了800万桶,那就是1200万桶,供应可没增加这么多,所以每天总共8600万桶的需求量,对于供应来说,并没有缓冲的空间。这就意味着,价格会剧烈的波动,也可能维持在一个很高的水平,现在的供求关系和过去五年又有了很大不同。
  
  主持人:现在对你来说有没有一个特定的国家你打算投资的?就如几年前你在韩国做的(老端注:几年前巴菲特买过浦项制铁的股票,当时该股票市盈率只有三倍)那样?使得你说:嗨,这里有好买卖!
  巴菲特:现在不像是韩国那样的形势了。在韩国,你可以随意寻找机会,随时投出飞镖,那些股票真的是非常非常便宜。你甚至会为世上拥有如此便宜的股票,而别人还不买而吃惊!中石油在几年前也是非常非常的便宜,但我们需要找到大买卖,所以我只能在大型市场上寻找机会,找那些在好几个国家市场领先的企业,这样才足够大。同时我还要考虑政治因素、税务因素以及股东的态度,以及其他事情。但现在找不到五年前韩国的情况了。
  
  主持人:我的问题是,在目前这个时段,你会如何在中国投资,是买入公司还是投资货币,还是其他的?你有类似的计划吗?
  巴菲特:扩展业务是我们一直在努力做的,我们旗下的Iscar不久前在大连开办了新工厂,当我在大连参观的时候,成就很令我满意,我们会在那里谈生意,我比较喜欢买证券,我也喜欢买公司,两者都没问题,如果接下来几年我什么也没干,我会非常吃惊。
  主持人:但事实上,沃伦,你知道的,当我们在中国的时候,那里的每个人都在谈论中国的经济发展会减速,因为全球经济在减速,你知道的,他们的出口商品就卖不掉了。他们的经济不是正依赖于出口吗?他们的很多公司是一种封闭经济,中国人只和中国人谈生意,我很想知道你是怎么看的。
  巴菲特:恩,我想他们的经济不会出问题,谁会知道经济会不会过热?谁能知道通货膨胀为什么高企?就像是美国,未来半年或一年发生了什么并不重要,重要的是未来十年会发生什么。我们会好起来的,而关键在于,中国人会做得更好,因为他们的起点比较低,但是在过去的20年里他们学会了很多商业的精髓,以及如何发挥人类的才智,虽然这些是美国早就已经知道的。关键是,他们学习的速度非常、非常、非常快。
  主持人:你知道,我们在几个月之前找到Jim Chanos做节目,当我们问他:你认为还有什么因素会造成严重的衰退?他说你应该看看印度、中国,看看他们的基础架构,你会发现,他们并不像看上去那么牢固。你是怎么看的?
  巴菲特:我不知道是还是不是,但我知道从现在开始十年以后,以及二十年以后,中国和印度会向前一大步,因此我从不为可能出现的突然危机而担心,我无法预测这些事情,就算我能够,我也只是希望我能够以足够便宜的价格购买好公司的股票,所以我从不对那些我不打算去理解的事情担忧,我考虑的是重要的和可以理解的事情。当我找到了那少数重要且可以理解的东西之后,我就参与其中。我从不对不重要的事情担忧,我也从不对那些不可知的事情担忧。
  主持人:沃伦,你打算去学中文吗?
  巴菲特:不不,我甚至也不打算去学习用筷子,如果我吃不到麦当劳,我就遇到麻烦了。

 

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