内幕报道 基本面分析 股票 基金 债券 投资 理财 股票网 就要股票网

可能是今天指数下跌的原因

上一篇 / 下一篇  2007-10-18 17:55:23 / 精华(3) / 个人分类:A股行情分析

查看( 43 ) / 评论( 1 )
China Shares in Hong Kong May Jump on Study to Allow Arbitrage

By Chen Shiyin and Lu Wang

Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese stocks trading in Hong Kong may advance today after Beijing regulators said they may allow arbitrage between shares traded on the mainland and the city.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., Aluminum Corp. of China and China Life Insurance Co. may gain after surging in U.S. trading. The USX China Index, which tracks U.S.-traded shares of 74 mainland companies, jumped 8.3 percent yesterday, the biggest rally since April 2001.

Limits on inward and outward investment have helped the CSI 300 Index almost triple this year, making the Hong Kong-traded shares of Chinese companies a cheaper alternative for investors. The securities regulator said yesterday it will study a plan to end price discrepancies amid concern a bubble is building.

The mainland Chinese market is ``overpriced,'' said James Moffett, manager of the $3.62 billion UMB Scout International Fund in Kansas City, Missouri. ``Our strategy is to try to invest in China without actually investing in China.''

The CSI 300 has jumped 185 percent this year, the biggest advance among the 90 equity indexes tracked by Bloomberg. It's valued at an average 56 times reported earnings, compared with 31 times for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index. The Hang Seng China Enterprises, a measure of 43 so-called H shares of Chinese companies, has gained 81 percent during in 2007.

Tu Guangshao, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said in Beijing that the panel is studying a proposal to allow swaps in shares of companies traded on domestic and Hong Kong exchanges. ``We will announce the result of the study soon,'' he said.

Sinopec, China Life

U.S.-traded receipts of China Petroleum, Asia's biggest refiner also known as Sinopec, soared 16 percent to $178.83, or the equivalent of a 13 percent gain from its Hong Kong close. The stock traded at 16 times estimated earnings in Hong Kong, compared with a multiple of 36 in Shanghai.

Those of Aluminum Corp. of China, the nation's biggest producer of the metal, surged 13 percent to $88.05. That's 13 percent higher than the stock's closing price in Hong Kong. China Life Insurance Co., the largest insurer, increased 12 percent to $106.56 in New York, representing a 8.3 percent gain from its Hong Kong close.

Shares of companies that plan to sell yuan shares may also advance in Hong Kong.

U.S.-traded receipts of China Mobile Ltd., the world's biggest wireless carrier by users, advanced 9.7 percent to $98.77, 3.6 percent more than its Hong Kong close. PetroChina Co., which this week overtook General Electric Co. as the world's second- largest company by market value, gained 15 percent to $263.70. That's 9.3 percent more than its share price in Hong Kong.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chen Shiyin in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net ; Lu Wang in New York at lwang8@bloomberg.net .

[ 本帖最后由 91gp 于 2007-10-18 14:46 编辑 ]

TAG: A股 H股 下跌 互换 套利 指数

91gp的个人空间 91gp 发布于2007-10-19 12:21:47
A股H股互换传闻分析
媒体报道,中国证监会副主席屠光绍昨日表示证监会正在研究允许在大陆和香
港交易所同时交易的公司股票之间互换的提议,中国证监会不久将宣布研究结
果。另有消息称,中国其他部委也很关注市场对这项计划的反应,尤其是国家
外汇管理局,因为这将是放开资本帐户的一个重大举动。
  目前情况下如果启动 A/H 股互换,我们认为有利有弊:有利面在于消除由于
对于同股采取不同估值标准对于实体经济的紊乱信号,使资源配置更有合理有
效;同时,A/H 股目前情况下互换可以降低内地市场的投机气氛,抑制蓝筹泡
沫的产生发展,为股指期货推出创造良好市场环境。不利方面在于会导致外汇
储备剧增、升值压力增大、港交所利益受损、资本项目开放力度过大等问题。
  我们认为,短期内全面启动实施 A/H 股互换的条件似乎并不具备,如果仓促
启动可能只会造成两地市场暴跌暴涨,巨幅动荡,但是 A/H 互换中长期的全面
启动是可能的。但要实现互换,应该具备以下几个前提条件:
  首先,人民币升值压力减小,资本和金融项目项下人民币基本实现可自由兑
换,资本进出自由基本成为现实。
  沪深交易所和香港交易所应该形成统一交易平台,结成利益统一联盟,消除
双方在信息披露、监管等方面的基本差异。
  截止 10 月 18 日收盘,共有 48 只股票同时在香港和内地证券市场交易,A/H
平均溢价幅度高达 104%。其中,共有 14 只股票的溢价幅度在 100%以上,洛
阳玻璃的溢价最高,竟然高达 950%;溢价为负的唯一一只股票为海螺水泥,
约-2%。
  从最新统计数据来看,当前现存的 87 只 B 股相对 A 股普遍存在大幅折价,
平均折价率约为 39%。最高的*ST 东方 B 折价率高达 64%,唯一一只存在溢
价的 ST 中华 B 折价率近-12%。
  如果管理层意图采取换股方式来解决同股不同权和同股不同价问题,国金认
为,A/B 股互换的紧迫性和现实可能性似乎更大。
我来说两句

(可选)

日历

« 2008-12-02  
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28293031   

数据统计

  • 访问量: 313
  • 日志数: 7
  • 建立时间: 2007-09-24
  • 更新时间: 2007-11-05

RSS订阅

Open Toolbar